September 2025 was the month the industry stopped pretending the autumn would “settle down”. The schools went back, corporate diaries tightened, and everyone started quietly costing out Christmas labour with one eye on the 26 November Budget. Then the Bank of England effectively said “don’t bank on more rate cuts this year”, which is a polite way of telling operators to keep sweating cash and keep sweating standards.
Business rates and labour costs are back on the front page, again
When Greene King says more than 600 of its licensees have written to Chancellor Rachel Reeves demanding business rates reform, that isn’t a lobbying flourish. It’s the sound of rent, rates, wage bills and utilities all landing on the same month-end spreadsheet, and the spreadsheet not blinking.
UKHospitality piled on the pressure with a very specific warning: 111,000 hospitality jobs at risk by the Budget if costs continue to stack up. That number is useful because it forces a real conversation inside businesses. Not “can we recruit?”, but “how many hours can we actually afford to roster without the week turning into a loss?” The answer, for a lot of venues, is fewer hours, fewer supervisors, and a sharper focus on peak periods only. Guest feedback then becomes more polarised, great when you’re fully staffed, messy when you’re thin.
JD Wetherspoon’s “Tax Equality Day” price cut, 7.5% off food and drink on 18 September, was the other side of the same argument. It’s theatre, but it’s also a reminder that value is now political, not just promotional. If you’re not a Wetherspoon, you still have to compete with the idea of cheap, simple, predictable nights out, especially in suburban and commuter towns.
DoorDash and Deliveroo tells us where margin battles will move next
The EU clearing DoorDash’s acquisition of Deliveroo (a deal valued at about £2.9bn) is bigger than a corporate headline. It’s a demand channel consolidating right as restaurants are being pushed harder on fees, delivery times, and customer satisfaction. Add in the confirmed news that Deliveroo founder Will Shu will step down post-acquisition, and it’s clear we’re entering a “new rules” period for delivery, whether you love it or merely tolerate it.
On the ground, Deliveroo also launched a midweek family meal push with over 30 UK restaurant brands, explicitly aiming for shareable meals for up to four people for £25 or under. That’s not just marketing, it’s them trying to build a category that competes with the supermarket meal deal, the freezer, and the “we can’t be bothered” cupboard. Operators should read that as: the platforms are going after the quietest, most margin-sensitive dayparts, Monday to Thursday, not just Friday night.
Then there’s the cost side. Uber warning that a Home Office crackdown on illegal workers could push delivery costs up is a reminder that even the gig economy is being pulled into the same labour squeeze as the rest of us. If delivery becomes pricier and slower, guest expectations won’t magically soften. They will simply review you harder when a “25 minutes” promise turns into 50.
Big brands are manufacturing occasions, not waiting for them
If September had a single operating lesson, it’s that scale players are actively building new reasons to visit, even if the market feels flat. KFC committing to a £1.5bn UK and Ireland growth plan, 500 new restaurants over the next decade and 7,000 jobs, is not a “nice to have” pipeline. It’s a land-grab for convenience, drive-thru, and late-night, and it will pull labour and footfall from everyone else on those retail parks.
At the same time, the menu arms race is getting blunter. Subway rolling “Spudway” loaded jacket potatoes across its entire UK estate of 2,132 locations is classic incremental growth thinking: same kitchens, same staffing model, new product that changes the ticket mix and (hopefully) improves profitability. Domino’s Pizza Group launching its Chick ‘N’ Dip brand at 187 stores in the north west of England and Northern Ireland is the same play again, use existing distribution and operations to step into fried chicken without building a new network.
The operator reality here is not glamorous. Every new product line creates new failure points: holding times, packaging, allergen comms, substitutions, and order accuracy. The guest doesn’t care that it’s a “brand extension”. They just care that it arrived hot, complete, and on time.
Experience-led venues are consolidating, and the numbers are starting to show
While food-led operators chase value and volume, experience-led hospitality is quietly doing what it always does in tighter markets: consolidating and professionalising.
XP Factory, which runs Escape Hunt and Boom Battle Bar, posted a 19% revenue increase to £57.8m for the year ending 31 March 2025, and explicitly pointed to market consolidation in experiential leisure. That matters because it hints at where the winners are: concepts that can run multi-site operating routines, not just great one-offs. If you’re running a competitive socialising venue in Manchester, Leeds or Glasgow, you’re not only competing on vibes. You’re competing on throughput, bar speed, maintenance, and the ability to keep a Saturday night flowing without the guest feeling herded.
The bigger signal came from outside classic hospitality. Lego agreeing to buy 29 entertainment venues from Merlin Entertainments for £200m is a statement that big consumer brands want owned experiences, not just licensing and merchandising. Merlin’s own numbers, revenue down 3.2% to £2.057bn in 2024 despite higher visitor numbers, underline the uncomfortable truth: getting people through the door is only half the job. Monetising that visit without annoying them is the real skill.
That’s also why the next wave of venue growth will obsess over guest feedback loops, not just new openings.
The common thread running through September 2025 is that nobody is waiting for “confidence to return”. Platforms are tightening control of demand, big chains are building new occasions with new formats, and the cost debate is becoming public because it has to. For operators, the competitive set is getting wider, the guest is more price-aware, and the tolerance for a sloppy midweek experience is basically zero.
Where measurement matters
When brands roll out new products across 2,000+ sites, or push hard into delivery value bundles, the small execution slips become very visible, very quickly, in online reviews. A tight programme of Mystery Customer Visits is one of the few practical ways to see whether “Spudway” or a new chicken add-on is being sold confidently, served to spec, and hitting speed targets on a normal Tuesday, not just on a launch weekend. Pair that with Online Reviews Monitoring, and you can spot whether complaints are clustering around delivery accuracy, portioning, or team attitude, then fix the right bottleneck before Christmas footfall turns every minor issue into a reputation problem.
October is when the serious planning starts, festive menus, party enquiries, seasonal hiring, and the awkward conversation about what you can and can’t absorb before the Budget lands. Christmas trading will tell us who’s genuinely bought themselves more footfall, and who’s just bought more complexity. If you’d like a sample report or a quick chat about what’s possible, get in touch.